Global macro overview for 08/11/2017

Market participants expect the RBNZ to maintain its key interest rate at 1.75% together with the neutral outlook for the monetary policy. NZD has undergone a strong influence on political risk, which seems a little exaggerated. With such a neutral position, optimistic RBNZ may be a pretext for short positions on NZD and short-term currency support.

Recently data from New Zealand has been positive since the last meeting. First of all, CPI inflation in the third quarter rose to 1.9% from 1.7% while the unemployment dropped to 4.6% with wage growth up to 1.2%. In addition, the NZD rate has clearly weakened under the influence of political uncertainty after the parliamentary elections, which will be welcomed by the RBNZ. Risk is the deterioration of business and consumer confidence indicators due to prolonged coalition negotiations. Overall, however, the state of the economy allows the RBNZ to be optimistic about the tone in the announcement, although the bank will be careful not to give a hawkish signal to the appreciation of the currency.

Let’s now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is locked in a narrow range between the levels of 0.6882 – 0.6970. In a case of an unexpected rate hike, the price might easily break through the golden trend line around the level of 0.6970 and head higher towards the next technical resistance at the level of 0.7015 and 0.7057. Otherwise, the price should remain in the horizontal zone.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 08, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as 10-y Bond Auction and Crude Oil Inventories. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.33.

Resistance. 2: 114.11.

Resistance. 1: 113.88.

Support. 1: 113.61.

Support. 2: 113.39.

Support. 3: 113.16.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 7, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite corrective and bearish recently which has led the price to fall back towards $7,000 support area. The trend has been non-volatile and most of the fundamental news has been in favor of Bitcoin which has supported the price to gain further. The pullback towards $7,000 support area has been a widely expected move as the last bullish moves were impulsive. A short-term correction is a must before the price bounces up higher towards $8,000 price level. Market sentiment is still quite bullish in light of recent positive reports, so the cryptocurrency is set to sustain further gains. The price is currently residing above the Kumo Cloud and expected to be contained above the Cloud to keep the bullish bias intact. As the price remains above $6,500-$7,000 support area, the bullish bias is likely to continue further.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 7, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair is moving downwards gradually, while the overall bias on the
market is bearish. Price is now below the resistance line at 1.1600, going
towards the support line at 1.1550. USD is supposed to be strong this week, and
that is what would put some bearish pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair did not move seriously on
Monday, but it was able to maintain its bullishness. The targets for this week
are located at the resistance levels of 1.0050, 1.0100, and 1.0150. The
resistance level at 1.0150 would require a very strong buying pressure to be
breached to the upside.

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GBP/USD: The Cable is a kind of maniacal market
right now, with large upswings and downswings. The short-term bias on the
market is neither clearly bearish nor clearly bullish. A directional bias is
expected to form soon, after price goes perpetually in one direction. Until
then, one would do well to stay out of the market.

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USD/JPY: A bullish signal has been generated on
the USD/JPY pairs. Price is currently making bullish effort; and having gone
above the demand level at 114.00, it is targeting the supply level at 114.500.
Another target for the week is the supply level at 115.00.

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EUR/JPY: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on
this cross, and rallies ought to be construed as opportunities to sell short.
The demand zone at 132.00 has been tested and it would be tested again (it
would be breached to the downside as price goes further south). Owing to a
bearish outlook on EUR pairs this week, the market is supposed to go further
southwards.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 7, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more downside pressure towards 1.6545 to complete wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave iii towards 1.7770. Short-term resistance is now seen at 1.6760, which ideally will cap the upside for the expected decline to 1.6545

R3: 1.6890

R2: 1.6800

R1: 1.6760

Pivot: 16695

S1: 1.6686

S2: 1.6636

S3: 1.6545

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.6790 and we will move our stop lower to 1.6890. Take profit will be placed at 1.6565.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 7, 2017

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Wave summary:

Resistance at 133.15 should continue to cap the upside for a test of short-term important support near 131.60 and a clear break below here will confirm that wave (D) completed with the test of 134.49 and wave (E) towards 123.43 is developing.

Short-term minor resistance is seen at 132.86.

R3: 133.98

R2: 133.15

R1: 132.86

Pivot: 132.00

S1: 131.60

S2: 131.00

S3: 130.56

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 132.59 with stop placed at 134.55.

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Euro Bets on Stock Indices

The main currency pair has outlined the boundaries of the medium-term trading range and is not going to leave it until the new driver is just around the corner. What can make the EUR/USD pair break above 1,188? Most likely, a sharp acceleration of European inflation, which will compel the ECB to make adjustments to its monetary policy. Judging by the slowdown in the CPI of the eurozone from 1.5% to 1.4% in October, the likelihood of implementing such a scenario is not high. Even taking into account the deferred effect of rising prices for Brent crude oil above $60 per barrel, we can expect inflation to accelerate only in the first half of 2018.

On the other hand, the dollar does not have many drivers to break support at 1.1575. The futures market is almost certain that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate to 1.5% in December and that it is also not in a hurry to lay the probability of a more aggressive monetary tightening of the US Central Bank in 2018 in the prices of dollar pairs. Passing tax reform through the Congress threatens to drag on, which will weaken the position of the “bears” in the EUR/USD pair.

Both economies look very good, the divergence in monetary policy has so far decided to take a break (at least until the end of 2017), the political risks after a favorable resolution of the conflict around Catalonia are approximately at the same level. Therefore, the main driver of the change in the prices of the main currency pair are capital flows on stock markets in the US and the eurozone. Following the decision of the ECB to extend the implementation of its quantitative easing program, at least until the end of September next year, the potential of European indices appears higher.

First, the policy of easy money in the eurozone allows you to rely on the liquidity flows from the Central Bank. Let the scale of QE be reduced from 60 billion to 30 billion euros per month, but taking into account the reinvestment of income from canceled bonds (around 10-15 billion euros) the amount is still high. Business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone in October reached its peak records from 2000, which allows us to count on maintaining a positive momentum in the GDP movement. Debt market rates remain ultra-low, and the gradual stabilization of the euro’s exchange rate will improve the financial results of corporations.

Dynamics of the S&P 500 and central bank balances

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Source: Goldman Sachs.

Therefore, capital inflows to the European stock market, which has become one of the key drivers of the growth of the EUR/USD pair following the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the presidential elections in France, will remind us. Of great importance will be whether non-residents will insure foreign exchange risks? I believe that if the euro was worth $1.2, the answer to this question would be positive. Another point is the trading range 1,1575-1,188. Within its limits, the probability of a hedge is not so great, which is a “bullish” factor for the main currency pair.

Technically, the breakthrough of support at 1.16 will increase the risks of implementing target points by 161.8% and 200% on the AB = CD pattern. On the contrary, the breakthrough of resistance at 1,168-1,169 will instill in the bulls a hope for growth in the prices of the EUR/USD pair towards the upper boundary of the downward trading channel.

EUR/USD, daily chart

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Breaking forecast 11/03/2017

Breaking forecast 11/03/2017

Ready to earn on strong movement on the U.S. employment report

On Friday, the important news is the official US employment report for October (Nonfarm payrolls).

Analysts predict high figures of + 200, 000- +300. 000.

At the same time, several important news in favor of the US dollar, already released in recent days, did not lead to a strengthening of the dollar – on the contrary, the EURUSD rate keeps near the highs of the week.

It is still preferred to hold EURUSD buying from 1.1660 with a target of 1.1760.

However, in case of a sharp turn down sell from 1.1574 – also based on a strong move.

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The Fed’s statement on November 01, 2017. FRS Comment on the Base Interest Rate Decision

The Fed’s statement on November 01, 2017. FRS comment on the base interest rate decision

Maintaining the base interest rate in the target range of 1.00% -1.25%, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve commented on its decision and the current situation in the country.

The Fed noted a significant increase in the economic activity, despite the hurricanes that caused destructions, the situation in the labor market continued to improve due to consistent reduction in unemployment, even in the face of declining employment in September brought by the subsequent storms.

The Fed stated that during the period between the commission meetings, family expenses showed moderate expansion, and the investment growth by business structures has increased significantly in the recent quarters.

The Fed continues to assess long-term inflation expectations as stable. At the same time, the total inflation and basic inflation is calculated on a 12-month basis, which does not include energy and food prices, decreased this year and remained below 2%. The rise in gasoline prices, after the impact of hurricanes. But the basic inflation remained at the same level. Compensatory has the same impact on inflation from the markets and continues to be implemented in a small extent.

In compliance with its authority, the Fed seeks to promote maximum employment and price stability. The damage and restoration of works by hurricanes will affect economic activity, employment and inflation in the near future, but previous experiences shows that the impact of economic growth in the medium term. Therefore, the Fed still expects that the gradual regulation of the monetary policy will expand economic activity at a moderate pace and further strengthen the labor market. Annual inflation is expected to remain slightly below 2% in the near future, but should stabilize near the Fed’s target level of 2% in the medium term. Short-term risks for the economic outlook look fairly balanced, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor inflation.

Considering the previously achieved and expected parameters of the labor market and inflation, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the range of federal funds target rate at 1.00% -1.25%. The basic principles of monetary policy will remain flexible enough, providing support for improvement of labor market conditions and a steady return of inflation level towards 2%.

In determining the timing and scope of future regulation for the range of federal funds target, the Fed will be guided by both achieved and expected progress in moving towards long-term goals of maximum employment and inflation at 2%. This approach will be based on a wide range of information, including parameters of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, financial and international events. The Fed will closely monitor the actual and expected inflation processes in relation to its symmetric target inflation rate. The Fed expects that economic conditions will develop a way for ensuring a smooth increase in the interest rate for federal funds and it will probably remain for some time below the levels that are expected to prevail over the long term. However, the actual interest rate trajectory for federal funds will depend on economic trends in accordance with the incoming data.

The program for normalizing the balance of the Fed, which started in October 2017, continues to be implemented.

The current fundamentals of monetary policy were adopted unanimously by 9 members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 02, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.345. China’s major exchanges have found a legitimate means through which to continue operations despite the Chinese government crackdown on cryptocurrency exchanges. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found strong upward momentum in the background. I also found successful testing of the upward trendline, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $7.349 and $7.945.

Support/Resistance

$6.695 – support cluster

$7.345 – intraday resistance

$7.945 – short-term upward target

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